Our prediction in short
Belgium are the likelier winners in Izmir, but our clearest bets are on corners and goals. The model rates over 7.5 corners at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 64%. The betting market makes Belgium favourites at 1.94, a 52% implied chance. Turkey have no points from four games and play their first match under Sergen Yalçın, while Belgium are without Romelu Lukaku. Editor score call: Turkey 1-2 Belgium.
Match facts
- Match
- Turkey vs Belgium
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1, matchday 5
- Date
- Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
- Kickoff
- 17:00 GMT, 20:00 local time
- Venue
- Gürsel Aksel Stadium, Izmir
- Turkey coach
- Sergen Yalçın, first game in charge
- Belgium coach
- Mark van Bommel
- At stake
- Turkey must win to keep third place in reach; Belgium chase the top two
- Last meeting
- Belgium 3-0 Turkey, 2 October 2026
Our verdict for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
A Belgium win is the market view; corners and goals are where our numbers are strongest.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Market view, best prices: Turkey 3.90, draw 4.10, Belgium 1.94 (52% implied).
Acca bets with Turkey vs Belgium
TrebleLower risk
80% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.28
Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Turkey v Belgium
Corners Over 7.5 corners 71% - 2 1.44
- 3 1.43
Where to bet it
Only 22Bet offers every leg in this slip.
| Leg | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Turkey v BelgiumOver 7.5 corners | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.31 | — |
| 2Germany v NetherlandsOver 2.5 goals | 1.44 | — | — | — | — | 1.52 |
| 3Ucv Moquegua v Atletico GrauOver 7.5 corners | 1.43 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Combined odds | 2.64 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 2.64 at 22Bet, with 80% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $26.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
75% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.30
Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Turkey v Belgium
Corners Over 7.5 corners 71% - 2 1.32
- 3 1.40
- 4 1.42
- 5 1.42
Where to bet it
Five bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Turkey v BelgiumOver 7.5 corners | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 1.29 | — | — |
| 2Armenia v CyprusOver 7.5 corners | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.30 | — | — |
| 3Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| 4Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 5CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.42 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Combined odds | 4.84 | 4.78 | 4.75 | 4.64 | 4.50 | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 4.84 at Megapari, with 75% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $48.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
70% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.31
Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Turkey v Belgium
Corners Over 7.5 corners 71% -
2
1.56
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% - 3 1.50
- 4 1.55
- 5 1.53
- 6 1.49
-
7
1.50
Fri 13 Nov, 20:00 UTC · CONCACAF Nations League
Grenada v Saint Kitts and Nevis
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 66% - 8 1.51
Where to bet it
Four bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Turkey v BelgiumOver 7.5 corners | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.28 | — | 1.29 | — |
| 2Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| 3England v CroatiaOver 8.5 corners | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.45 |
| 4Aruba v MartiniqueOver 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| 5Northern Ireland v UkraineOver 7.5 corners | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.52 |
| 6Mirassol v Atletico-MGOver 9.5 corners | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.50 | — | — |
| 7Grenada v Saint Kitts and NevisOver 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.46 | 1.42 | 1.50 | — | 1.47 |
| 8Albania v FinlandOver 7.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Combined odds | 24.53 | 24.37 | 23.82 | 21.33 | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 24.53 at Roobet, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $245.30. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call Opinion
Turkey1-2Belgium
Turkey scored in both games against Italy and should attack more under a new coach, but they have conceded in all four group games. Belgium score 2.3 goals a match in our data and won 3-0 in Liège. We expect a Belgium win by one goal, with goals at both ends.
- Over 2.5 goals: model 64%
- Both teams to score: model 56%
- Belgium win: market 52%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
What our model sees in Turkey vs Belgium
The model works from team data on corners and goals. It does not pick a winner, so the result view in this article comes from the betting market.
Corners. Here the numbers favour the underdog. Turkey average 8.0 corners a match in our data and concede 3.0. Belgium take 3.8 and concede 4.8. The model projects 10.3 corners in total, which puts over 7.5 corners at 71% and over 8.5 at 65%.
Goals. Belgium average 2.3 goals a match and Turkey 1.0. The model has over 2.5 goals at 64%, best price 1.53 at Thunderpick, and both teams to score at 56%. Turkey have let in 11 goals in four group games, so the goals line leans on Belgium scoring more than once.
What Turkey and Belgium need in Izmir
Belgium win
Belgium move to 9 points. Beat Italy in Brussels on Sunday 15 November as well, and Belgium finish in the top two and reach the quarter finals in March 2027, whatever happens elsewhere.
Belgium draw
Belgium reach 7 points and can no longer finish below Turkey. A win over Italy on Sunday would still take them into the top two, because Belgium would also hold the head to head edge over Italy.
Belgium lose
The top two is out of Belgium hands. They would need to beat Italy on Sunday and hope Italy do not beat France on Thursday evening.
Turkey win
Turkey get their first points. Third place is still possible, but only if Turkey also win in France on Sunday, Belgium lose to Italy, and the win in Izmir is big enough to overturn the 3-0 from Liège on head to head.
Turkey draw or lose
Turkey are sure to finish bottom of Group 1. Their League A place then depends on how they rank against the fourth placed teams in the other three groups.
How League A works this season: the top two in each group go through to the quarter finals and the two best third placed teams stay in League A. The two worst third placed teams and the two best fourth placed teams play playoffs against League B runners up. The two worst fourth placed teams drop to League B. Teams level on points are split by head to head results first.
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7-2 | 10 |
| Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 | 7 |
| Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6-5 | 6 |
| Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2-11 | 0 |
Italy vs France kicks off later on Thursday, at 19:45 GMT. On Sunday 15 November Belgium host Italy and France host Turkey.
Sergen Yalçın starts against Belgium: can Turkey stop the slide?
Turkey, officially Türkiye, sacked Vincenzo Montella on 9 October after four defeats in four group games. On 20 October they named Sergen Yalçın head coach on a four year deal, and Thursday is his first game in charge. Yalçın played for Turkey at Euro 1996 and Euro 2000, and as Beşiktaş coach he won the league and cup double in 2020/21.
This is the first Turkey season in League A, after a 6-1 aggregate win over Hungary in the March 2025 playoff. It has gone badly: no points, 2 goals scored and 11 conceded. The summer was poor too, with a group stage exit at the World Cup.
Yalçın has promised changes to the way Turkey play. He will use a central striker, and Enes Ünal, back after a long injury, starts up front. He said the whole plan for Thursday is built around a win, because three points keep the playoff route to staying in League A open.
Belgium won the first meeting 3-0 in Liège on 2 October, with two goals from Kevin De Bruyne and one from Romelu Lukaku. Mark van Bommel does not read much into that score. He said Turkey created more chances than the result suggests, and he expects a different Turkey under a new coach.
Belgium bring players who know Turkish football well: Leandro Trossard plays for Beşiktaş and Lukaku for Fenerbahçe. Lukaku will not play on Thursday. He has a minor hip injury, and Van Bommel and the player agreed not to risk him, with the aim of having him fit for Italy on Sunday.
History offers Turkey some hope. At Euro 2000 they beat Belgium 2-0 in Brussels with two goals from Hakan Şükür, and knocked the joint hosts out of their own tournament.
Turkey vs Belgium team news: who is missing in Izmir
Turkey
CoachSergen Yalçın, in his first game since his appointment on 20 October
OutKenan Yıldız of Juventus (injury), Aral Şimşir (injury, left the squad on 11 November)
DoubtZeki Çelik is unlikely to start, Yalçın said, but could play part of the game
Confirmed starterEnes Ünal leads the attack after a long injury layoff
Not called upKerem Aktürkoğlu, Mert Müldür and İrfan Can Kahveci
In the squadArda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Orkun Kökçü and Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Belgium
CoachMark van Bommel, in charge since the summer after the World Cup
OutRomelu Lukaku (minor hip injury, rested as a precaution with Italy on Sunday in mind)
BackJérémy Doku returns to the squad
New facesJosué Kongolo of Genk and Hugo Cuypers of Monterrey, both first call ups
In the squadKevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Leandro Trossard, Charles De Ketelaere and Dodi Lukebakio
We leave predicted lineups out: previews did not agree, and Turkey play their first game under a new coach. Confirmed lineups arrive about an hour before kickoff.
Turkey vs Belgium head to head
| Date | Result | Competition | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium 3-0 Türkiye | UEFA Nations League | 7 | |
| Belgium 1-1 Turkey | Euro 2012 qualifier, Brussels | n/a | |
| Turkey 3-2 Belgium | Euro 2012 qualifier, Istanbul | n/a | |
| Belgium 2-0 Turkey | World Cup 2010 qualifier, Brussels | n/a | |
| Turkey 1-1 Belgium | World Cup 2010 qualifier, Istanbul | n/a | |
| Belgium 0-2 Turkey | Euro 2000 group stage, Brussels | n/a |
Corner counts come from our match data where we have it. Older games show n/a.
Before October the two sides had met 11 times, with 3 wins each and 5 draws, so the 3-0 in Liège put Belgium one win ahead overall. Before that night Belgium had won only one of the previous seven meetings, a 2-0 in Brussels in 2009. Turkey have not beaten Belgium since a 3-2 win in Istanbul in September 2010.
Turkey vs Belgium best bets for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: Turkey concede, Belgium score
Turkey have conceded 11 goals in four group games, and Belgium score 2.3 a match in our data. Turkey also scored in both games against Italy, so goals at both ends are realistic. The risk is a careful first game for a new coach, which keeps this price modest.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: a home side that has to attack
Turkey take 8.0 corners a match in our data and Belgium concede 4.8. Turkey need the win, so expect them to push forward in numbers, and Belgium did not stop them creating chances in Liège either. The model projects 10.3 corners, well clear of the 7.5 line.
Turkey vs Belgium odds: best price on each result
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
Turkey vs Belgium corner stats side by side
| Stat | Turkey | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for, per match | 8.0 | 3.8 |
| Corners against, per match | 3.0 | 4.8 |
| Total match corners | 11.0 | 8.6 |
| First half corners | 2.4 | 2.5 |
Every corner line from 7.5 to 11.5, with prices by sportsbook and first half numbers, is on our Turkey vs Belgium corner prediction page.
Turkey vs Belgium prediction FAQ
Who will win Turkey vs Belgium?
The betting market makes Belgium favourites at 1.94, a 52% implied chance, with Turkey at 3.90 and the draw at 4.10. Our model does not price the result; it backs over 7.5 corners at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 64%. Our editor score call is Turkey 1-2 Belgium.
What is the Turkey vs Belgium score prediction?
Turkey 1-2 Belgium. This is the editor score call, an opinion rather than model output. It fits the model lean towards over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
What do Turkey need against Belgium?
Turkey must win to keep any hope of third place in Group 1. A draw or a defeat on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026 leaves them bottom of the group, and their League A place then depends on how they rank against the other fourth placed teams: the two best go to the playoffs, the two worst are relegated to League B.
What happened when Turkey played Belgium in October?
Belgium won 3-0 in Liège on 2 October 2026. Kevin De Bruyne scored twice and Romelu Lukaku added the third. It was the third of four straight Nations League defeats for Turkey.
Is Romelu Lukaku playing for Belgium against Turkey?
No. Lukaku has a minor hip injury, and Mark van Bommel said the staff and the player agreed not to risk him in Izmir. Van Bommel hopes he can play against Italy on Sunday 15 November.
Who is the Turkey coach now?
Sergen Yalçın. The Turkish federation named him on 20 October 2026 on a four year deal, after Vincenzo Montella was sacked. The Belgium game is his first in charge.
What time is Turkey vs Belgium and where is it played?
Kickoff is 17:00 GMT on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, which is 20:00 local time. The match is at Gürsel Aksel Stadium in Izmir.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
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