Italy vs France prediction in brief
Italy vs France looks like a match for corners and goals, not for a banker on the result. The model rates over 7.5 corners at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 61%. The market makes France favourites at 2.03, a 49% implied chance, with Italy at 4.10. A draw takes France into the quarter finals, while Italy need a win to draw level with them on points. Kylian Mbappé is out with a hamstring problem. Editor score call: Italy 1-2 France.
Italy vs France at a glance
- Match
- Italy vs France
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1, matchday 5
- Date
- Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 GMT
- Venue
- San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza), Milan
- Referee
- István Kovács (Romania)
- TV in Italy
- Rai 1 and RaiPlay
- At stake
- A draw takes France into the quarter finals
- Missing
- Kylian Mbappé (hamstring)
- Last meeting
- France 1-1 Italy, 2 October 2026
The corneredge.bet verdict for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Corners first, goals second: the model leans over on both in Milan.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Market view, best prices: Italy 4.10 (24% implied), draw 3.75, France 2.03 (49% implied).
Accumulators that include Italy vs France
TrebleLower risk
76% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.26
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Italy v France
Corners Over 7.5 corners 70% -
2
1.41
Mon 16 Nov, 13:00 UTC · Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualification
Corners Over 7.5 corners 79% - 3 1.40
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy v FranceOver 7.5 corners | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2Namibia v CameroonOver 7.5 corners | 1.41 | 1.41 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| Combined odds | 2.49 | 2.47 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 2.49 at Megapari, with 76% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $24.90. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
74% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.26
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Italy v France
Corners Over 7.5 corners 70% - 2 1.32
- 3 1.42
- 4 1.56
- 5 1.42
Where to bet it
Four bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy v FranceOver 7.5 corners | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2Armenia v CyprusOver 7.5 corners | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.30 | — | — |
| 3Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 4Haiti v USAOver 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| 5CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.42 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Combined odds | 5.23 | 5.18 | 5.14 | 5.04 | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.23 at Megapari, with 74% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $52.30. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
73% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
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1
1.26
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Italy v France
Corners Over 7.5 corners 70% -
2
1.52
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 UTC · Scotland Championship
Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's Park
Corners Over 8.5 corners 76% - 3 1.51
- 4 1.51
-
5
1.60
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% -
6
1.58
Sun 15 Nov, 15:15 UTC · Spain Segunda Division
Corners Over 8.5 corners 72% - 7 1.55
- 8 1.49
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 5 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 8 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy v FranceOver 7.5 corners | 1.26 | 1.25 | — | 1.30 | 1.30 | — | — |
| 2Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's ParkOver 8.5 corners | 1.52 | 1.53 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Aruba v MartiniqueOver 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| 4Atlético Goianiense v Cuiaba ECOver 9.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.60 |
| 6Granada CF v UD Las PalmasOver 8.5 corners | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.54 | — | — | 1.53 | 1.54 |
| 7Queretaro v MonterreyOver 9.5 corners | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.54 | — | — | — | — |
| 8Mirassol v Atletico-MGOver 9.5 corners | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.49 | — | — |
| Combined odds | 25.50 | 24.95 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 25.50 at Megapari, with 73% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $255.00. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call Opinion
Italy1-2France
France keep finding goals late: Michael Olise has scored 4 of their 7 in this group, and 5 of the 7 came after the 75th minute. Italy scored in three of their four group games and average 1.0 goals a match in our data, against 2.0 for France. Without Mbappé we expect France to need time again, and we expect both sides to score.
- Over 2.5 goals: model 61%
- Both teams to score: model 51%
- France win: market 49%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Italy vs France model prediction: corners and goals
Our model prices corners and goals from team data. It does not rate the winner, so every result figure on this page is the betting market, and every pick is the model.
Corners. Italy win 5.5 corners a match and concede 4.5. France win 6.3 and concede 2.6. The model projects 9.5 corners in total, which makes over 7.5 a 70% chance and over 9.5 a 58% chance. The October meeting in Paris had 10 corners.
Goals. Italy average 1.0 goals a match and France 2.0. Over 2.5 goals rates 61%, best price 1.70 at 22Bet. Both teams to score rates lower, at 51%, so it stays out of the verdict.
Group 1 stakes: what Italy and France need from this game
Italy win
Italy draw level with France on 10 points with one game left. A draw in Brussels on Sunday 15 November would then be enough to reach the quarter finals.
A draw
France are through to the quarter finals. Italy go to Brussels on 8 points: if Belgium beat Turkey earlier on Thursday, only an Italy win there will do; if Belgium drop points, a draw is enough.
France win
France win the group with a game to spare. Italy stay on 7 points, and if Belgium beat Turkey earlier on Thursday, Italy must win in Brussels to finish second.
The floor for Italy
Italy cannot finish bottom: Turkey have no points and can reach 6 at most. Third place, the worst case, would mean no quarter final.
The top two in each League A group reach the quarter finals in March 2027. The four quarter final winners go to the Nations League Finals in June 2027.
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7-2 | 10 |
| Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 | 7 |
| Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6-5 | 6 |
| Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2-11 | 0 |
Turkey vs Belgium, the other game in the group, kicks off earlier on Thursday at 17:00 GMT. Belgium vs Italy in Brussels and France vs Turkey in Bordeaux close the group on Sunday 15 November.
A rebuilt Italy, a bad run in Milan and a France attack without Mbappé
Italy have lost their last three games in Milan: 1-3 to France in November 2024, 1-2 to Germany in March 2025 and 1-4 to Norway in November 2025. In March 2026, Italy lost the World Cup playoff final to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties and missed a third World Cup in a row.
Roberto Mancini came back in July for a second spell and named nine uncapped players in his first squad. The start was rough, a 0-2 home defeat to Belgium in Rome, but Italy have taken 7 points from 9 since then. Mancini says qualification is within reach with two games left.
France arrive top of the group under Zinedine Zidane, but short of forwards. Mbappé has a hamstring problem, Ousmane Dembélé and Marcus Thuram are injured, and Senny Mayulu was called up from the under 21 squad as cover. Mancini said France still have plenty of top attackers without Mbappé.
The France goals have come late. Michael Olise has 4 of their 7, and 5 of the 7 arrived after the 75th minute, four of them in the 4-1 comeback against Belgium. Italy are the only side Zidane has not beaten: in Paris, Olise scored, Alessandro Bastoni equalised, and France finished with 10 men after Dayot Upamecano was sent off.
Italy vs France team news: absences and likely lineups
Italy
CoachRoberto Mancini, back for a second spell since July 2026
OutNicolò Zaniolo (left the camp for personal reasons), Gianluca Mancini (injured; Matteo Palma called up in his place)
Group formLost 0-2 at home to Belgium, won 4-1 in Turkey, drew 1-1 in France, beat Turkey 3-1 in Bologna
ScorersAlessandro Bastoni and Pio Esposito have two group goals each
Predicted XIDonnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Cambiaghi
France
CoachZinedine Zidane, in charge since July 2026 after Didier Deschamps
OutKylian Mbappé (hamstring; he stays with the squad), plus Aurélien Tchouaméni, Marcus Thuram and Pierre Kalulu, who left the squad injured this week
Not in squadOusmane Dembélé, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Manu Koné, Maxence Lacroix, Maghnes Akliouche and Estéban Lepaul, all injured
Called upSenny Mayulu from the under 21 squad as cover; Pablo Pagis is in his first senior squad
ScorersMichael Olise has 4 of the 7 France goals in the group
Predicted XIMaignan; Zaïre-Emery, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert; Cherki, Da Cunha, Rabiot; Olise, Barcola, Doué
Predicted lineups from Goal Italia, Gazzetta del Sud, Virgilio Sport and Fantacalcio. Nine Italy names appear in all four: Donnarumma, Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Barella, Tonali and both Espositos. The third midfield place (Frattesi, Fagioli or Doumbia) and the left side of the attack (Cambiaghi or Vergara) differ. For France, Maignan, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert, Cherki, Rabiot, Olise and Doué appear in every lineup; previews disagree on the right back and on who replaces Mbappé. Official lineups come out about an hour before kickoff.
Italy vs France head to head and recent meetings
| Date | Result | Competition | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|
| France 1-1 Italy | UEFA Nations League | 10 | |
| Italy 1-3 France | Nations League, San Siro | n/a | |
| France 1-3 Italy | Nations League, Parc des Princes | n/a | |
| France 3-1 Italy | Friendly, Nice | n/a | |
| Italy 1-3 France | Friendly, Bari | n/a | |
| Italy 1-2 France | Friendly, Parma | n/a | |
| France 0-2 Italy | Euro 2008 group stage, Zurich | n/a | |
| Italy 0-0 France | Euro 2008 qualifier, San Siro | n/a | |
| France 3-1 Italy | Euro 2008 qualifier, Stade de France | n/a | |
| Italy 1-1 France | World Cup final | n/a |
Corners show only where our match data has them; older meetings show n/a.
Italy and France have met 42 times before Thursday: 19 Italy wins, 12 France wins and 11 draws, with the 2006 World Cup final counted as a draw. Recent meetings favour France: four wins in the last six, against one for Italy. In Milan, France won 3-1 in November 2024, and the Euro 2008 qualifier at San Siro in 2007 ended 0-0.
Our two best bets on Italy vs France for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: our highest model chance on this match
Italy matches average 10.0 corners in total and France matches 8.9. France win 6.3 corners a match and Italy concede 4.5, and the model projects 9.5 against a line of 7.5. The price is short at 1.30; over 8.5 corners pays 1.52 for a 64% model chance.
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: two attacks that keep scoring in this group
Italy have scored 8 goals in four group games and France 7. The risk is the first meeting: 1-1 in Paris, with both goals after half time. Without Mbappé, France may need longer to break Italy down, and that is why this is a price, not a banker.
Italy vs France match odds: home, draw and away prices
Each tile shows the top price for that outcome among the sportsbooks we track. The implied chance is 100 divided by the odds, before the margin each sportsbook builds in.
Italy vs France corner stats side by side
| Stat | Italy | France |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for, per match | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| Corners against, per match | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| Total match corners | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| First half corners | 2.5 | 4.1 |
For each corner line from 7.5 to 11.5, with the price at every sportsbook and the first half numbers, open our Italy vs France corner prediction page.
Italy vs France prediction: your questions answered
Who will win Italy vs France?
France, at 2.03 (49% implied), are the market favourites; Italy are 4.10 and the draw 3.75. Our model leaves the result to the market and backs over 7.5 corners (70%) and over 2.5 goals (61%). Our editors call it Italy 1-2 France.
What is the Italy vs France score prediction?
Italy 1-2 France. That is the opinion of our editors, not a model output. Three goals with both sides scoring fits the model lean to over 2.5 goals.
What do Italy and France need from this game?
France reach the quarter finals with a draw, and a win also makes them group winners. Italy need a win to draw level with France on 10 points; a draw in Brussels on Sunday would then be enough. If Italy do not win, second place comes down to their game in Brussels and to how Belgium do against Turkey earlier on Thursday. Italy cannot finish bottom.
Is Kylian Mbappé playing for France against Italy?
No. Zinedine Zidane ruled him out on Wednesday with a hamstring problem. Mbappé stays with the squad, and France hope he can face Turkey in Bordeaux on Sunday.
What happened the last time Italy played France?
They drew 1-1 at the Stade de France on 2 October 2026. Michael Olise scored for France, Alessandro Bastoni equalised, and France ended with 10 men after Dayot Upamecano was sent off. The game had 10 corners.
What is the head to head record between Italy and France?
In 42 meetings Italy have won 19, France 12, and 11 were drawn, with the 2006 World Cup final counted as a draw. France have the better recent record: four wins in the last six meetings, against one for Italy.
Where is Italy vs France played, and who is the referee?
At San Siro in Milan, kickoff 19:45 GMT on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026. István Kovács of Romania referees. In Italy the match is live on Rai 1 and streams on RaiPlay.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Prices, chances and slips on this page refresh automatically from our live feeds. Any change since publication is listed here with its time.
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