Our prediction in short
Albania vs Finland looks close on paper, and our model sees more goals in it than the betting market does. It rates over 7.5 corners at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 61%. The market makes Albania 44% favourites at 2.27. Albania lead League C Group 1 by two points, and a win guarantees them a top two finish. Finland won 2-1 in Helsinki in October, and Albania have not beaten Finland since 1980. Editor score call: Albania 2-1 Finland.
Match facts
- Match
- Albania vs Finland
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 1, matchday 5
- Date
- Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 GMT
- Venue
- Arena Kombëtare, Tirana
- Coaches
- Rolando Maran (Albania), Jacob Friis (Finland)
- Table
- Albania first on 9 points, Finland third on 7
- At stake
- An Albania win guarantees them a top two finish
- Last meeting
- Finland 2-1 Albania, 3 October 2026
- Head to head
- 8 meetings: Finland 5 wins, Albania 2, one draw
Our verdict for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Corners over the line, and more goals than the market expects.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Match result, best prices now: Albania 2.27 (44% implied), draw 3.10 (32%), Finland 4.40 (23%).
Accumulators that use Albania vs Finland
TrebleLower risk
77% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.45
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Albania v Finland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 67% - 2 1.52
- 3 1.41
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albania v FinlandOver 7.5 corners | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.51 |
| 2Germany v NetherlandsOver 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.42 |
| Combined odds | 3.11 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 3.11 at Thunderpick, with 77% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $31.10. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
74% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.51
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Albania v Finland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 67% - 2 1.35
- 3 1.31
- 4 1.39
- 5 1.42
Where to bet it
Five bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albania v FinlandOver 7.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| 2Armenia v CyprusOver 7.5 corners | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.30 | — | — |
| 3Turkey v BelgiumOver 7.5 corners | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 | — | — |
| 4Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 5Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Combined odds | 5.27 | 5.27 | 5.20 | 5.12 | 4.86 | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.27 at BetFury, with 74% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $52.70. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
70% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.48
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Albania v Finland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 67% - 2 1.43
- 3 1.43
- 4 1.55
-
5
1.54
Sun 15 Nov, 15:15 UTC · Spain Segunda Division
Corners Over 8.5 corners 72% - 6 1.52
- 7 1.48
- 8 1.57
Where to bet it
Three bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albania v FinlandOver 7.5 corners | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| 2AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.43 | 1.43 | — | — |
| 3Romania v PolandOver 7.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| 4Northern Ireland v UkraineOver 7.5 corners | 1.55 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| 5Granada CF v UD Las PalmasOver 8.5 corners | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.58 | — | — |
| 6Doncaster Rovers FC v Leyton OrientOver 9.5 corners | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.54 | — | — | — | — |
| 7Eldense v CE SabadellOver 8.5 corners | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.49 | — | — |
| 8Haiti v USAOver 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Combined odds | 25.51 | 23.99 | 23.83 | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 25.51 at Mostbet, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $255.10. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Read the reason behind every leg in our Albania vs Finland acca tips
Editor score call Opinion
Albania2-1Finland
Three of the eight meetings between these teams ended 2-1, each time to Finland. We expect the same score with Albania on top this time. Albania have won both group games in Tirana and score 1.3 goals a match in our data. Finland have scored only twice in three games since their 7-0 win in San Marino, both from Leo Walta free kicks, but that set piece threat is enough to cost Albania a goal. The call goes against the narrow model lean to both teams to score: No (53%).
- Over 2.5 goals: model 61%
- Albania win: market 44%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Albania vs Finland prediction: the numbers behind our picks
We rate goals and corners from the recent numbers of both teams. The model does not price the match result, so the result odds on this page come from the sportsbooks, and the picks come from our goals and corners data.
Goals. Albania average 1.3 goals a match and Finland 0.5. Recent Albania games went over 2.5 goals 45% of the time and Finland games 45%, yet the model puts over 2.5 goals on Thursday at 61%. The best price is 2.54 at Thunderpick, which tells you the market expects a tighter game than our model does. Both teams to score: No is only a narrow lean at 53%.
Corners. The corner numbers of the two sides are close. Albania take 4.5 corners a match and concede 5.1; Finland take 4.6 and concede 5.0. The model projects 9.7 corners in total, which makes over 7.5 corners a 67% chance and over 8.5 corners 61%. The higher lines get thinner: over 9.5 corners is 55%, with a best price of 2.52.
League C Group 1 permutations for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Albania win
Albania reach 12 points and are sure of a top two finish, so a promotion playoff in March 2027 at worst. If Belarus fail to win in San Marino at the same time, Albania win the group on Thursday and go up to League B. If Belarus do win, a draw in Budapest on Sunday 15 November is enough for top spot.
Draw
Albania stay top on 10 points, two clear of Finland. A win in Budapest on Sunday would then make Albania group winners whatever else happens. For Finland, a home win over San Marino on Sunday would then guarantee at least second place.
Finland win
Finland go top on 10 points, one ahead of Albania. A home win over San Marino on Sunday would then make Finland group winners unless Belarus win both of their games, because Belarus are ahead of Finland on head to head. Albania would need to win in Budapest to be sure of a top two finish.
What Belarus can change
Belarus play in San Marino at the same time and host Albania in Budapest on Sunday. A Belarus win on Thursday takes them to 10 points. If Finland lose in Tirana and Belarus win, Finland cannot finish in the top two.
League C rules for 2026/27: the group winners go up to League B, the runners up play a promotion playoff in March 2027 against a team that finished fourth in League B, and the teams in third and fourth place stay in League C. Teams level on points are split first by the results of the games between them.
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8-3 | 9 |
| Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5-2 | 7 |
| Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9-2 | 7 |
| San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1-16 | 0 |
Belarus are above Finland on head to head: 0-0 in Helsinki and 1-0 to Belarus in Budapest. San Marino vs Belarus kicks off at the same time as Albania vs Finland. On Sunday 15 November, Belarus host Albania in Budapest and Finland host San Marino in Helsinki.
Ten men, two free kicks and a wait since 1980
The first meeting in 24 years came in Helsinki on 3 October. Rey Manaj put Albania ahead in the 4th minute. In the 22nd minute goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off for a foul on Daniel Håkans at the edge of the area, and Leo Walta scored from the free kick past substitute keeper Alen Sherri. Walta scored a second free kick in the 71st minute for a 2-1 Finland win.
That result fits a long pattern. Albania have not beaten Finland since a 2-0 win in Tirana on 3 September 1980. Finland have won four and drawn one of the five meetings since, and three of those wins finished 2-1.
Recent form points the other way. Albania lost five games in a row between November 2025 and June 2026, from England in Tirana through the World Cup playoff defeat in Warsaw to home friendlies against Israel and Luxembourg. Under Rolando Maran they have won three of their four group games since. Finland opened with a 7-0 win in San Marino, but they have scored twice in three games since, both from Walta free kicks, and lost 1-0 to Belarus in Budapest after conceding in the first minute.
Both teams dropped out of League B in 2024/25, and only the group winner goes straight back up. Jacob Friis was questioned in the Finnish media after the defeat in Budapest, so a win in Tirana would ease the pressure on him as well as put Finland back on top.
Albania vs Finland team news: returns, recalls and likely lineups
Albania
CoachRolando Maran: three wins and three defeats in his six games in charge
BackGoalkeeper Etrit Berisha, sent off in Helsinki in October, has served his ban and is in the 27 man squad
CaptainBerat Djimsiti
In formKristjan Asllani has 3 of the 8 Albania goals in the group, two of them from the penalty spot
Predicted XIBerisha; Cake, Ismajli, Mitaj; Hysaj, Ramadani, Asllani, Pilo; Muçi, Manaj, Hoxha
Finland
CoachJacob Friis, questioned in the Finnish media after the 1-0 defeat in Budapest in October
BackOliver Antman (Anderlecht) and Naatan Skyttä (Kaiserslautern), who missed the first four group games
RecalledRobert Ivanov and Fredrik Jensen. Luka Hyryläinen (Magdeburg) is in a senior squad for the first time
Not in the squadSamuli Miettinen and Glen Kamara, who both played in the 2-1 win over Albania in October
Key manLeo Walta scored both goals in Helsinki, each from a free kick
Predicted XIHradecky; Ståhl, T. Miettinen, Tenho, Lähteenmäki; Kairinen, Marhiev, Walta; Svanbäck, Pohjanpalo, Håkans
Predicted lineups from Sports Mole. Statz picks a back four for Albania with captain Berat Djimsiti in it, where Sports Mole has a back three without him. Nine Albania names appear in both: Berisha, Hysaj, Ismajli, Mitaj, Ramadani, Asllani, Pilo, Muçi and Manaj. Seven Finland names appear in both: Hradecky, Lähteenmäki, Tony Miettinen, Kairinen, Marhiev, Walta and Svanbäck. Confirmed lineups arrive about an hour before kickoff.
Albania vs Finland head to head: eight meetings since 1972
| Date | Result | Competition | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland 2-1 Albania | UEFA Nations League | 13 | |
| Albania 1-1 Finland | Friendly tournament, Bahrain | n/a | |
| Albania 0-2 Finland | World Cup 2002 qualifier, Tirana | n/a | |
| Finland 2-1 Albania | World Cup 2002 qualifier, Helsinki | n/a | |
| Finland 2-1 Albania | World Cup 1982 qualifier, Kotka | n/a | |
| Albania 2-0 Finland | World Cup 1982 qualifier, Tirana | n/a | |
| Albania 1-0 Finland | World Cup 1974 qualifier, Tirana | n/a | |
| Finland 1-0 Albania | World Cup 1974 qualifier, Helsinki | n/a |
Corner counts come from our match data where we have it. The older games show n/a.
All time, Albania and Finland have met eight times: five Finland wins, one draw and two Albania wins. Both Albania wins came in Tirana, in 1973 and 1980, and Albania have not beaten Finland since. Three of the eight games ended Finland 2-1 Albania, the last of them on 3 October 2026.
Albania vs Finland best bets for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: the model sees a more open game than the market
Our model rates this at 61%, well above the chance a price of 2.54 implies. Albania have scored in all four group games, and three of the last five meetings had three goals. The risk is that both attacks have been patchy: Finland have not scored from open play since the 7-0 in San Marino, and Albania needed a 93rd minute penalty to beat San Marino at home. Treat it as a value bet with a modest stake.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: two sides who trade corners evenly
Neither side dominates the corner count, so this pick does not depend on one team pinning the other back. The model projects 9.7 corners in total against a line of 7.5, and the game in Helsinki had 13 with Albania a man down for over an hour. The price of 1.51 is short, so over 8.5 corners at 1.90 is the option if you want more return for more risk.
Albania vs Finland odds: best match result prices
The highest price for each result across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance equals 1 divided by the price and ignores the margin the sportsbook builds in.
Albania vs Finland corner stats side by side
| Stat | Albania | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for, per match | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against, per match | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| First half corners | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Our Albania vs Finland corner prediction page lists every corner line from 7.5 to 11.5 with prices by sportsbook, plus the first half numbers of both teams.
Albania vs Finland prediction FAQ
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
The betting market makes Albania favourites at 2.27, a 44% implied chance, for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, in Tirana, with Finland at 4.40. Our model does not price the result; it backs over 7.5 corners at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 61%. Our editor score call is Albania 2-1 Finland.
What is the Albania vs Finland score prediction?
Albania 2-1 Finland. It is the opinion of our editors, not model output, and it fits the model lean to over 2.5 goals.
Can Albania win the group on Thursday?
Only if Belarus slip. A win over Finland on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, wins League C Group 1 for Albania if Belarus fail to win in San Marino at the same time. If Belarus do win, Albania need at least a draw in Budapest on Sunday. A win alone already guarantees Albania a top two finish, so a promotion playoff in March 2027 at worst.
What happened when Albania played Finland in October?
Finland won 2-1 in Helsinki on 3 October 2026. Rey Manaj scored for Albania in the 4th minute, goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd minute, and Leo Walta scored twice from free kicks. The game had 13 corners.
When did Albania last beat Finland?
On 3 September 1980, 2-0 in Tirana in a World Cup qualifier. Since then Finland have won four and drawn one of the five meetings.
Is Etrit Berisha playing for Albania against Finland?
He is available. Berisha was sent off against Finland in October, has served his ban and is in the Albania squad for Thursday. Confirmed lineups arrive about an hour before kickoff.
What time is Albania vs Finland and where is it played?
Kickoff is 19:45 GMT on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, at the Arena Kombëtare in Tirana. That is 20:45 in Tirana and 21:45 in Finland.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Prices, chances and slips on this page refresh automatically from our live feeds. Any change since publication is listed here with its time.
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