Our prediction in short
England should beat Croatia at Wembley, and our numbers point to an open game rather than a tight one. The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and over 7.5 corners at 72%. The betting market makes England 78% favourites at 1.29. A draw is enough to take England into the quarter finals. Bukayo Saka is out injured, and Harry Kane wins a record 126th England cap. Editor score call: England 3-1 Croatia.
Match facts
- Match
- England vs Croatia
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 3, matchday 5
- Date
- Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 GMT
- Venue
- Wembley Stadium, London
- UK TV
- ITV1 and ITVX
- Referee
- Morten Krogh (Denmark)
- Milestone
- Harry Kane wins a record 126th England cap
- At stake
- England reach the quarter finals with a draw
- Last meeting
- Croatia 0-7 England, 3 October 2026
Our verdict for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
England win, with goals and corners both pointing the same way.
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Market view, best prices: England 1.29 (78% implied), draw 6.10, Croatia 12.50.
Acca bets with England vs Croatia
TrebleLower risk
76% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.28
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
England v Croatia
Corners Over 7.5 corners 72% - 2 1.35
- 3 1.37
Where to bet it
Four bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1England v CroatiaOver 7.5 corners | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2Armenia v CyprusOver 7.5 corners | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.30 | — | — |
| 3CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Combined odds | 2.37 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.33 | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 2.37 at Roobet, with 76% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $23.70. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
74% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.43
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
England v Croatia
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 68% - 2 1.40
- 3 1.43
- 4 1.42
- 5 1.42
Where to bet it
Five bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1England v CroatiaOver 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| 2Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| 3AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.43 | 1.45 | — | — |
| 4Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 5CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.37 |
| Combined odds | 5.77 | 5.77 | 5.60 | 5.57 | 5.45 | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.77 at 22Bet, with 74% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $57.70. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
74% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.25
Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
England v Croatia
Corners Over 7.5 corners 72% - 2 1.44
-
3
1.52
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 UTC · Scotland Championship
Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's Park
Corners Over 8.5 corners 76% - 4 1.51
- 5 1.60
-
6
1.60
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% - 7 1.57
- 8 1.49
Where to bet it
Only 22Bet offers every leg in this slip.
| Leg | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 8 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1England v CroatiaOver 7.5 corners | 1.25 | 1.25 | — | 1.27 | 1.28 | — | — |
| 2Germany v NetherlandsOver 2.5 goals | 1.44 | — | 1.52 | — | — | — | — |
| 3Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's ParkOver 8.5 corners | 1.52 | 1.52 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4Atlético Goianiense v Cuiaba ECOver 9.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5Poland v SwedenOver 2.5 goals | 1.60 | — | 1.58 | — | — | 1.58 | — |
| 6Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.60 |
| 7Fortaleza EC v Vila Nova FCOver 9.5 corners | 1.57 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8Mirassol v Atletico-MGOver 9.5 corners | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.49 | — | — |
| Combined odds | 24.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 24.74 at 22Bet, with 74% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $247.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call Opinion
England3-1Croatia
England have scored 11 goals in two games against Croatia since June, and they average 1.9 goals a match in our data. Croatia score 1.5 a game and found the net twice in the World Cup meeting, so we expect them to score once at Wembley even in defeat.
- Over 2.5 goals: model 68%
- England win: market 78%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
England vs Croatia prediction: what the model says
Our model reads each market from team data. It does not pick a match winner, so the result view above comes from the betting market, while the picks come from goals and corners numbers.
Goals. England average 1.9 goals per match and Croatia 1.5. The two meetings since June produced 6 and 7 goals. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 68%, best price 1.46 at GG.BET.
Corners. England take 6.7 corners a match and concede 3.3. Croatia take 3.5 and concede 5.3. The model projects 9.8 corners in total, which puts over 7.5 corners at 72%.
What England and Croatia need on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
England win or draw
England are through to the quarter finals in March 2027, with Spain away still to play on Sunday 15 November.
England lose
England are still almost certainly through. Croatia would need to win by 7 goals or more, beat Czechia on Sunday, and see England lose in Madrid.
Can England top the group?
Only by winning in Madrid on Sunday. Spain lead on 12 points and are already through; England have 9.
What Croatia are playing for
A place in League A. Croatia cannot top the group, and third place keeps them out of direct relegation. A point against Czechia on Sunday secures third, whatever happens at Wembley.
League A rules for 2026/27: the top two in each group reach the quarter finals, the two best third placed teams stay up, the two worst third placed and the two best fourth placed teams go to playoffs, and the two worst fourth placed teams are relegated.
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12-5 | 12 |
| England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14-3 | 9 |
| Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4-14 | 3 |
| Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2-10 | 0 |
Czechia vs Spain is also played on Thursday at 19:45 GMT. Spain vs England and Croatia vs Czechia follow on Sunday 15 November.
From Rijeka to Wembley: why the rematch should be closer
On 3 October England won 7-0 in Rijeka, the heaviest defeat in Croatia history. Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka scored twice each, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers added the rest, and the game was over at 4-0 by half time. Saka will not be at Wembley: he has a thigh injury and is out of the squad.
Wembley should look different. After a defeat that heavy, we expect Croatia to sit deeper and protect the space behind their back line that England kept finding in Rijeka. That is part of why our score call has England winning by two, not by seven.
Both managers expect a different game. Thomas Tuchel said he expects a reaction from Croatia. Slaven Bilić, in his second spell as Croatia coach, said Thursday is a chance to show that "what happened in Rijeka was just a collective bad day".
History also gives Croatia a reason to believe at this ground. On 21 November 2007 they won 3-2 at Wembley, the result that kept England out of Euro 2008.
England vs Croatia team news and predicted lineups
England
ManagerThomas Tuchel
OutBukayo Saka (thigh injury), Marc Guehi (hip, replaced by Dan Burn), Ezri Konsa (injury, expected back for Spain), Myles Lewis-Skelly (suspended)
DoubtsDjed Spence missed training on Wednesday. Reports differ on Declan Rice
Left outCole Palmer, Phil Foden and Kobbie Mainoo, by choice
MilestoneHarry Kane wins his 126th cap, one more than the old England record held by Peter Shilton
Predicted XIPickford; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Branthwaite, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, J. Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
Croatia
ManagerSlaven Bilić, in his second spell in charge
OutIvan Perišić (suspended), Josip Šutalo (hamstring, replaced by Niko Galešić), Kramarić, Pongračić, Franjo Ivanović, Jakić (knee), Luka Sučić (ill)
Called upLovro Majer as cover in midfield
Predicted XILivaković; Stanišić, Vušković, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol; Modrić, Kovačić; Vlašić, M. Pašalić, Baturina; Budimir
Predicted lineups from Sports Mole and Racing Post (England) and Sports Mole and Flashscore (Croatia). Six England names appear in every lineup we checked: Pickford, Hall, Anderson, Bellingham, Gordon and Kane. Some Croatia previews have Petar Sučić in midfield and Matanović up front. Confirmed lineups arrive about an hour before kickoff.
England vs Croatia head to head
| Date | Result | Competition | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia 0-7 England | UEFA Nations League | 7 | |
| England 4-2 Croatia | World Cup 2026 | 10 | |
| England 1-0 Croatia | Euro group | n/a | |
| England 2-1 Croatia | Nations League, Wembley | n/a | |
| Croatia 0-0 England | Nations League, Rijeka | n/a | |
| Croatia 2-1 England | World Cup semi final | n/a | |
| England 5-1 Croatia | World Cup 2010 qualifier, Wembley | n/a | |
| England 2-3 Croatia | Euro 2008 qualifier, Wembley | n/a |
Corner counts come from our match data where it exists. Older meetings show n/a.
All time, England and Croatia have met 13 times: 8 England wins, 2 draws and 3 Croatia wins. England have won the last four meetings. At Wembley, Croatia have won once in five visits, the 3-2 in 2007.
England vs Croatia best bets for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: back another open game
Both meetings since June went well past the line, and England average 1.9 goals a match in our data. The risk is a Croatia side that defends deep and slows the game down, which is why this is not a bigger price.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: England pressure, Croatia deep
England take 6.7 corners a match and Croatia concede 5.3. If Croatia sit deep as we expect, more England attacks end in blocked shots and corners. The model projects 9.8, a clear margin over the 7.5 line.
England vs Croatia odds: best prices right now
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
England vs Croatia corners in one minute
| Stat | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for, per match | 6.7 | 3.5 |
| Corners against, per match | 3.3 | 5.3 |
| Total match corners | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| First half corners | 4.6 | 2.3 |
Every corner line from 7.5 to 11.5, with prices by sportsbook and first half numbers, is on our England vs Croatia corner prediction page.
England vs Croatia prediction FAQ
Who will win England vs Croatia?
The betting market makes England clear favourites at 1.29, a 78% implied chance, for Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, at Wembley. Our model does not price the match result; it backs over 2.5 goals at 68% and over 7.5 corners at 72%. Our editor score call is England 3-1 Croatia.
What is the England vs Croatia score prediction?
England 3-1 Croatia. This is the editor score call, an opinion rather than model output, and it fits the model lean towards over 2.5 goals.
Do England need to win to reach the Nations League quarter finals?
No. A draw against Croatia on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, takes England into the quarter finals. Even a defeat only puts that at risk if Croatia win by 7 goals or more, beat Czechia on Sunday and England lose in Spain.
What was the score the last time England played Croatia?
England won 7-0 in Rijeka on 3 October 2026 in the Nations League, the heaviest defeat in Croatia history. In June England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup.
Have Croatia ever beaten England at Wembley?
Yes. Croatia won 3-2 at Wembley on 21 November 2007 in a Euro 2008 qualifier, a result that kept England out of the tournament.
Is Bukayo Saka playing for England against Croatia?
No. Saka has a thigh injury and is not in the England squad. He scored twice in the 7-0 win in Rijeka on 3 October.
What time is England vs Croatia and where can I watch it?
Kickoff is 19:45 GMT on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, at Wembley Stadium. In the UK the match is live on ITV1 and streams on ITVX.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
- England to win: best price 1.30 to 1.29.
- Over 9.5 corners: best price 1.86 to 1.89 (now Thunderpick).
- Over 7.5 corners: best price 1.27 to 1.28; Over 8.5 corners: best price 1.49 to 1.50 (now Roobet); Over 2.5 goals: best price 1.47 to 1.46 (now GG.BET).
- England to win: best price 1.31 to 1.30.
- England to win: best price 1.30 to 1.31.
- Draw: best price 6.40 to 6.35 (now Megapari).
- England to win: best price 1.27 to 1.30.
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