Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction
Iceland should win in Plovdiv, and the strongest pick in the numbers is on corners. The corneredge.bet model rates over 7.5 corners at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 57%, while the betting market makes Iceland 54% favourites at 1.86. Iceland top League C Group 4 and win promotion to League B on Friday if they beat Bulgaria and Estonia fail to win in Luxembourg. Bulgaria lose forward Martin Minchev to injury, and interim coach Atanas Ribarski has left out Kristian Dimitrov. Editor score call: Bulgaria 1-2 Iceland.
Match facts
- Match
- Bulgaria vs Iceland
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27
- Group
- League C, Group 4, matchday 5
- Date
- Friday, Nov 13, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 UTC
- Venue
- Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv
- Referee
- Florian Badstübner (Germany)
- At stake
- Iceland go up with a win if Estonia do not win
- Last meeting
- Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria, 3 October 2026
- Missing
- Martin Minchev (Bulgaria), Albert Guðmundsson (Iceland)
Model verdict for Friday, Nov 13 2026
Iceland are favourites, and corners give the strongest model pick.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Market view, best prices: Bulgaria 4.50, draw 3.55, Iceland 1.86 (54% implied).
Acca bets with Bulgaria vs Iceland
FivefoldBalanced
71% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.38
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Bulgaria v Iceland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 63% -
2
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 16:00 UTC · Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualification
BTTS Both teams to score: No 71% - 3 1.40
- 4 1.38
- 5 1.48
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bulgaria v IcelandOver 7.5 corners | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| 2South Africa v KenyaBoth teams to score: No | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| 3Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| 4CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| 5Georgia v HungaryOver 7.5 corners | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Combined odds | 5.52 | 5.48 | 5.41 | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.22 | 5.22 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.52 at Mostbet, with 71% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $55.20. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
70% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Bulgaria v Iceland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 63% - 2 1.53
-
3
1.56
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% - 4 1.55
-
5
1.49
Fri 13 Nov, 20:00 UTC · CONCACAF Nations League
Grenada v Saint Kitts and Nevis
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 66% - 6 1.43
- 7 1.43
- 8 1.39
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bulgaria v IcelandOver 7.5 corners | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 2Northern Ireland v UkraineOver 7.5 corners | 1.53 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.51 |
| 3Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.56 |
| 4Haiti v USAOver 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.55 |
| 5Grenada v Saint Kitts and NevisOver 2.5 goals | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| 6AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.45 |
| 7Moldova v KazakhstanOver 7.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.35 |
| 8Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| Combined odds | 21.94 | 21.80 | 20.56 | 20.32 | 19.85 | 18.79 | 18.11 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 21.94 at Roobet, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $219.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call
OpinionFull time call · Fri, Nov 13 · 19:45 UTC · Hristo Botev Stadium
Why 1-2
Iceland are unbeaten in the group, have conceded one goal in four games and won the October meeting 3-0. Bulgaria have scored in two of their four group games, both times against Luxembourg, so we expect a goal for the home side but an Iceland win. The model lean to over 2.5 goals at 57% points to three goals rather than a 1-0.
What backs the call
- ModelOver 2.5 goals57%
- MarketIceland win54%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction: what the model says
The model reads each market from team data and does not pick a match winner. The result view in this article comes from the betting market, where Iceland are favourites at 1.86. The picks come from corners and goals numbers.
Goals. Neither side scores much in our data: Bulgaria average 1.0 goals per match and Iceland 0.6. The model still rates over 2.5 goals at 57%, a modest lean, with a best price of 2.11 at Thunderpick. Over 3.5 goals drops to 39%.
Corners. Bulgaria take 3.3 corners a match and concede 5.0. Iceland take 4.8 and concede 5.0. The model projects 9.1 corners in total, which puts over 7.5 corners at 63% and over 8.5 corners at 57%.
What Bulgaria and Iceland need on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Iceland win
Iceland reach 11 points. If Estonia fail to win in Luxembourg on the same night, Iceland are group winners and promoted to League B. If Estonia win, a home win over Luxembourg on Monday 16 November settles it.
A draw
Bulgaria can no longer win the group. Iceland stay top on 9 points, but Estonia draw level on points with a win in Luxembourg, and the group goes to Monday.
Bulgaria win
Bulgaria move to 7 points, one behind Iceland. A second win, in Tallinn on Monday, would lift them to 10 points and guarantee at least second place and a promotion playoff. Top spot would also need Iceland to drop points at home to Luxembourg.
Bulgaria lose
Bulgaria cannot win the group, and second place is gone too if Estonia win in Luxembourg. They cannot go down: third and fourth place both stay in League C.
League C rules for 2026/27: the four group winners are promoted to League B, the runners up play the fourth placed teams of League B in playoffs in March 2027, and the third and fourth placed teams stay in League C.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IcelandThis match | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7-1 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2-1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | BulgariaThis match | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | -5 | 3 |
- Winner: up to League B
- Second: promotion playoff
- Third and fourth: stay in League C
Luxembourg vs Estonia is also played on Friday at 19:45 UTC. Estonia vs Bulgaria and Iceland vs Luxembourg follow on Monday 16 November.
After 3-0 in Reykjavik: Iceland chase League B, Bulgaria start again under Ribarski
On 3 October Iceland beat Bulgaria 3-0 at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavik. Orri Steinn Óskarsson scored twice and Mikael Egill Ellertsson added a third in the 90th minute. It was the first Iceland win over Bulgaria at the sixth attempt.
That game was the first for Atanas Ribarski as interim Bulgaria coach, after Aleksandar Dimitrov left following the 0-0 draw with Estonia in Plovdiv. Three days later Bulgaria won 2-0 in Luxembourg, with goals from Kristiyan Balov and Atanas Iliev, their only win of the campaign. For November, Ribarski has called up three uncapped players, Simeon Shishkov, Georgi Lazarov and Ivan Pankov, and left out Kristian Dimitrov.
Iceland are in League C for the first time, after losing a playoff to Kosovo in March 2025. They are unbeaten in the group and the only goal they have conceded came in the 1-1 draw with Estonia on matchday 1. Albert Guðmundsson was injured in that game and is not in the squad for Plovdiv.
Bulgaria have not won at home in this group: they lost 2-1 to Luxembourg and drew 0-0 with Estonia, both in Plovdiv. Older history points the other way. Iceland lost both earlier visits to Bulgaria, 2-1 in 2001 and 3-2 in 2005, both World Cup qualifiers in Sofia.
Bulgaria vs Iceland team news and predicted lineups
Bulgaria
Head coach Atanas Ribarski (interim), in charge since the 3 October game in Reykjavik
- Out
Martin Minchev, injured playing for Cracovia on 6 November. Svetoslav Kovachev of Arda takes his place in the squad
- Not in squad
Kristian Dimitrov, goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov and Zdravko Dimitrov, no reason given
- Called up
Three uncapped players: Simeon Shishkov (Ludogorets), Georgi Lazarov (Cherno More) and Ivan Pankov (AEK Larnaca)
- Form
One win in four group games, 2-0 in Luxembourg on 6 October, with goals from Kristiyan Balov and Atanas Iliev
Iceland
Head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson
- Out
Albert Guðmundsson, injured in the 1-1 draw with Estonia in September
- Doubts
Daníel Leó Grétarsson is in the squad but on leave from his club AGF for personal reasons
- Back
Kristian Nökkvi Hlynsson returns to the squad
- Key man
Orri Steinn Óskarsson, 12 goals in 22 caps, scored twice in the 3-0 win over Bulgaria in October
- Experience
Aron Einar Gunnarsson (111 caps) and Gylfi Sigurðsson (90 caps, 28 goals) are both in the squad
Bulgaria vs Iceland head to head
Last 6 meetings
- 10corners
Iceland3-0Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League - n/a
Bulgaria3-2Iceland
World Cup 2006 qualifier, Sofia - n/a
Iceland1-3Bulgaria
World Cup 2006 qualifier, Reykjavik - n/a
Iceland1-1Bulgaria
World Cup 2002 qualifier, Reykjavik - n/a
Bulgaria2-1Iceland
World Cup 2002 qualifier, Sofia - n/a
Iceland2-3Bulgaria
Friendly, Reykjavik
Corner counts come from our match data where it exists. Older meetings show n/a.
All time, Bulgaria and Iceland have met six times: 4 Bulgaria wins, 1 draw and 1 Iceland win, so Bulgaria have won two thirds of the meetings. That Iceland win was the 3-0 in Reykjavik on 3 October 2026, their first over Bulgaria. Friday is the third meeting in Bulgaria and the first in Plovdiv; Bulgaria won the first two, both in Sofia.
Bulgaria vs Iceland best bets for Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: a modest lean towards three goals
Iceland scored three goals in each of their two wins in this group, and the model rates the line at 57%. The risk is the Iceland defence: one goal conceded in four group games, so a 1-0 or 2-0 away win would beat this bet. The market is more cautious than the model, which is why the best price is 2.11.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: the strongest line in the data
Iceland take 4.8 corners a match and Bulgaria concede 5.0. As favourites, Iceland should have more of the ball, and the model projects 9.1 corners in total, above the 7.5 line. For a bigger price, over 8.5 corners is 1.75 at a 57% model chance.
Bulgaria vs Iceland odds: best prices right now
What the market says
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
Bulgaria vs Iceland corners in one minute
Corner averages per match
Corners for, per match
Corners against, per match lower is better
Total match corners
First half corners
Better in that row
The full corner market for this match, lines 7.5 to 11.5 with prices by sportsbook and first half numbers, is on the Bulgaria vs Iceland corner prediction page.
Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction FAQ
Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?
The betting market makes Iceland favourites at 1.86, a 54% implied chance, for Friday, Nov 13, 2026, in Plovdiv. The model does not price the match result; it backs over 7.5 corners at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The editor score call is Bulgaria 1-2 Iceland.
What is the Bulgaria vs Iceland score prediction?
Bulgaria 1-2 Iceland. This is the editor score call, an opinion rather than model output, and it fits the model lean towards over 2.5 goals.
Can Iceland win the group against Bulgaria?
Yes, if results go their way. A win on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, takes Iceland to 11 points and makes them group winners, promoted to League B, if Estonia fail to win in Luxembourg on the same night. If Estonia win, Iceland can settle it with a home win over Luxembourg on Monday 16 November.
What was the score the last time Bulgaria played Iceland?
Iceland won 3-0 in Reykjavik on 3 October 2026 in the Nations League, with two goals from Orri Steinn Óskarsson. It was the first Iceland win over Bulgaria in six meetings.
Is Albert Guðmundsson playing for Iceland against Bulgaria?
No. Albert Guðmundsson has not played since he was injured against Estonia in September, and he is not in the Iceland squad for Plovdiv or for the home game with Luxembourg.
Who is missing for Bulgaria against Iceland?
Forward Martin Minchev is out injured, and Svetoslav Kovachev of Arda took his place in the squad. Interim coach Atanas Ribarski also left out Kristian Dimitrov and called up three uncapped players.
What time is Bulgaria vs Iceland and where is it played?
Kickoff is 19:45 UTC on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, at the Hristo Botev Stadium in Plovdiv. Florian Badstübner of Germany is the referee.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Prices, chances and slips on this page refresh automatically from our live feeds. Any change since publication is listed here with its time.
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