Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction
Luxembourg vs Estonia looks like a low scoring game between a home side that has lost three in a row without a goal and an Estonia team that has conceded once in four group games. The corneredge.bet model backs over 7.5 corners at 63% but rates over 2.5 goals at only 41%. The betting market makes Luxembourg 43% favourites at 2.35. Estonia sit second in League C Group 4, and only a win keeps Luxembourg in the race for second place. Luxembourg are without the injured Leandro Barreiro and the suspended Dirk Carlson. Editor score call: Luxembourg 1-1 Estonia.
Match facts
- Match
- Luxembourg vs Estonia
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27
- Group
- League C, Group 4, matchday 5
- Date
- Friday, Nov 13, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 UTC
- Venue
- Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg City
- Referee
- Ishmael Barbara (Malta)
- Table
- Estonia second on 6 points, Luxembourg fourth on 3
- At stake
- Luxembourg need a win to stay in the top two race
- Last meeting
- Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg, 3 October 2026
Model verdict for Friday, Nov 13 2026
Corners over the line, but few goals in a tight game.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Over 9.5 corners
Bet
Over 9.5 corners
Market view, best prices: Luxembourg 2.35 (43% implied), draw 3.15, Estonia 3.34.
Acca bets with Luxembourg vs Estonia
FivefoldBalanced
70% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Luxembourg v Estonia
Corners Over 7.5 corners 63% -
2
1.37
Fri 13 Nov, 16:00 UTC · Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualification
BTTS Both teams to score: No 71% - 3 1.42
- 4 1.43
- 5 1.40
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luxembourg v EstoniaOver 7.5 corners | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| 2South Africa v KenyaBoth teams to score: No | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| 3Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| 4AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| 5Bulgaria v IcelandOver 7.5 corners | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Combined odds | 5.45 | 5.41 | 5.38 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.15 | 5.04 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.45 at Roobet, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $54.50. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
70% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.39
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Luxembourg v Estonia
Corners Over 7.5 corners 63% - 2 1.57
- 3 1.54
-
4
1.50
Fri 13 Nov, 20:00 UTC · CONCACAF Nations League
Grenada v Saint Kitts and Nevis
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 66% -
5
1.60
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% - 6 1.38
- 7 1.40
- 8 1.44
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luxembourg v EstoniaOver 7.5 corners | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 2Haiti v USAOver 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| 3Northern Ireland v UkraineOver 7.5 corners | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| 4Grenada v Saint Kitts and NevisOver 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.36 | 1.48 | 1.38 |
| 5Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.56 |
| 6CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| 7Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| 8Romania v PolandOver 7.5 corners | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Combined odds | 22.44 | 21.54 | 21.46 | 21.15 | 19.91 | 19.44 | 17.61 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 22.44 at Mostbet, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $224.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call
OpinionFull time call · Fri, Nov 13 · 19:45 UTC · Stade de Luxembourg
Why 1-1
Estonia have drawn three of their four group games and conceded only once, and Luxembourg have not scored in three. Even so, the market makes Luxembourg favourites at home, and we expect them to end that run with one goal, while Estonia score once, as they did in two of their group games. With the model at 41% for over 2.5 goals, a low score fits.
What backs the call
- ModelOver 2.5 goals41%
- MarketDraw32%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction: what the model says
The model rates goals and corners from the recent numbers of both teams. It does not price the match result, so the result view in this article comes from the sportsbooks, and the picks come from goals and corners data.
Goals. Luxembourg average 0.5 goals a match in our data and Estonia 1.5. The four Estonia group games produced three goals in total, and Luxembourg have not scored since September. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 41%, so it does not lean towards goals in this match, and there is no goals bet in this article.
Corners. Luxembourg take 3.3 corners a match and concede 6.5. Estonia take 4.8 and concede 5.8. The model projects 9.6 corners in total, which makes over 7.5 corners a 63% chance and over 8.5 corners 57%. Over 9.5 corners is close to even at 51%.
What Luxembourg and Estonia need on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Luxembourg win
Luxembourg draw level with Estonia on 6 points and stay in the race for second place, with a trip to Iceland on Monday 16 November to come. A win by two goals or more would also turn the head to head record with Estonia in their favour.
Draw
Estonia move to 7 points and Luxembourg to 4. Luxembourg can then no longer finish in the top two: Iceland already have 8 points, and Estonia hold the better head to head record against them.
Estonia win
Estonia move to 9 points and Luxembourg are out of the top two race. If Bulgaria do not beat Iceland on the same night, Estonia are sure of at least second place before their last game, at home to Bulgaria on Monday.
Can anyone go down?
No. Third and fourth place both stay in League C under the 2026/27 rules, so neither side risks relegation on Friday.
League C rules for 2026/27: the four group winners go up to League B, the runners up play the fourth placed League B teams in promotion playoffs in March 2027, and the teams in third and fourth stay in League C. Nobody goes down, because 2026/27 is the last edition with a League D.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7-1 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | EstoniaThis match | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2-1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | LuxembourgThis match | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | -5 | 3 |
- Winner: up to League B
- Second: promotion playoff
- Third and fourth: stay in League C
Bulgaria vs Iceland kicks off at the same time on Friday, 19:45 UTC. On Monday 16 November, Estonia host Bulgaria and Iceland host Luxembourg, both at 17:00 UTC.
Luxembourg still chasing a first win against Estonia
The reverse fixture in Tallinn on 3 October was settled early. In the 5th minute Mattias Käit drove into the box, Anthony Moris saved his low shot, and Rasmus Peetson put in the rebound. It finished 1-0, the first Estonia win of this Nations League campaign.
That result kept a long record intact. Luxembourg have never beaten Estonia in four meetings. The first, a friendly in Luxembourg City in April 2000, ended 1-1 after a 90th minute Luxembourg equaliser. Estonia then won 4-0 in Tallinn in 2004 and 2-0 in Luxembourg City in 2005, both in qualifying for the 2006 World Cup.
Luxembourg began the group with a 2-1 win in Plovdiv on 26 September, with goals from Leandro Barreiro and Vincent Thill. They have lost three in a row since without scoring: 0-3 at home to Iceland, 0-1 in Tallinn and 0-2 at home to Bulgaria. Barreiro now misses the November games with a thigh injury.
Estonia under Jürgen Henn have been hard to break down: one goal conceded in four group games, three of them clean sheets. Jeff Strasser kept Luxembourg in League C in March with a 5-0 aggregate playoff win over Malta. This time nobody can go down, so Friday is about second place for Luxembourg and a push for promotion for Estonia.
Luxembourg vs Estonia team news and predicted lineups
Luxembourg
Head coach Jeff Strasser
- Out
Leandro Barreiro (thigh), Danel Sinani, Christopher Martins and Seid Korac, all injured
- Suspended
Dirk Carlson
- Back
Laurent Jans returns to the squad after injury
- Form
Three defeats in a row without a goal since the 2-1 win in Plovdiv on 26 September
- Likely starters
Two previews agree on eight names: Anthony Moris, Florian Bohnert, Vahid Selimović, Eric Veiga, Omar Natami, Vincent Thill, Enzo dos Santos and Hamza Kadamani. They differ on the rest.
Estonia
Head coach Jürgen Henn
- Not in squad
Rauno Sappinen, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Märten Kuusk, Markus Soomets and Robi Saarma, for health reasons
- Back
Captain Karol Mets after a one match ban, and goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein after an adductor injury in October
- Key man
Rasmus Peetson scored the only goal of the 1-0 win over Luxembourg in Tallinn
- Form
Unbeaten in the group, with one goal conceded in four games
- Likely shape
Two previews expect a back three of Karol Mets, Maksim Paskotši and Erko Jonne Tõugjas. They differ on the goalkeeper: Hein or Matvei Igonen.
Luxembourg vs Estonia head to head
Last 4 meetings
- 10corners
Estonia1-0Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League - n/a
Luxembourg0-2Estonia
World Cup 2006 qualifier, Luxembourg City - n/a
Estonia4-0Luxembourg
World Cup 2006 qualifier, Tallinn - n/a
Luxembourg1-1Estonia
Friendly, Luxembourg City
Corner counts come from our match data where it exists. Older meetings show n/a.
All time, Luxembourg and Estonia have met four times: Estonia have won three, one game was a draw and Luxembourg have never won. That is a 75% win rate for Estonia, with 8 goals scored to 1. The only Luxembourg goal in the fixture came in the 90th minute of a 1-1 friendly in Luxembourg City on 26 April 2000.
Luxembourg vs Estonia best bets for Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: Luxembourg give corners away
Luxembourg concede 6.5 corners a match in our data and Estonia take 4.8. Luxembourg matches average 9.8 corners in total and Estonia matches 10.5, and the model projects 9.6, above the 7.5 line. The price of 1.40 is short, so over 8.5 corners at 1.73 (57% model chance) is the option for more return at more risk.
Luxembourg vs Estonia odds: best prices right now
What the market says
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
Luxembourg vs Estonia corners in one minute
Corner averages per match
Corners for, per match
Corners against, per match lower is better
Total match corners
First half corners
Better in that row
Every corner line from 7.5 to 11.5, with prices by sportsbook and first half numbers, is on the Luxembourg vs Estonia corner prediction page.
Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction FAQ
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
The betting market makes Luxembourg favourites at 2.35, a 43% implied chance, for Friday, Nov 13, 2026, at the Stade de Luxembourg, with Estonia at 3.34. The model does not price the match result; it backs over 7.5 corners at 63% and rates over 2.5 goals at only 41%. The editor score call is Luxembourg 1-1 Estonia.
What is the Luxembourg vs Estonia score prediction?
Luxembourg 1-1 Estonia. This is the editor score call, an opinion rather than model output, and it fits the model view that over 2.5 goals is less likely than not.
Can Luxembourg still finish second in the group?
Only with a win. A win on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, lifts Luxembourg level with Estonia on 6 points, with one game left away to Iceland on Monday. A draw or a defeat ends their chance of second place. Third and fourth both stay in League C this season, so Luxembourg cannot go down.
What was the score the last time Luxembourg played Estonia?
Estonia won 1-0 in Tallinn on 3 October 2026 in the Nations League, with a 5th minute goal from Rasmus Peetson. In four meetings Estonia have won three and drawn one, and Luxembourg have never won.
Is Leandro Barreiro playing for Luxembourg against Estonia?
No. Barreiro has a thigh injury and misses the November games. Danel Sinani, Christopher Martins and Seid Korac are also injured, and Dirk Carlson is suspended.
Who is the referee for Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Ishmael Barbara of Malta is the referee.
What time is Luxembourg vs Estonia and where is it played?
Kickoff is 19:45 UTC on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, at the Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg City. That is 20:45 in Luxembourg and 21:45 in Estonia.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Prices, chances and slips on this page refresh automatically from our live feeds. Any change since publication is listed here with its time.
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