Romania vs Poland prediction
Poland are favourites in Bucharest, but Romania have to attack, which points to an open game. The corneredge.bet model rates over 7.5 corners at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The betting market makes Poland 53% favourites at 1.87. Romania need a win to keep third place in reach, while a draw is enough to keep Poland in League B. Both sides lose a regular to suspension: Răzvan Marin for Romania and Jan Bednarek for Poland. Editor score call: Romania 1-2 Poland.
Match facts
- Match
- Romania vs Poland
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27
- Group
- League B, Group 4, matchday 5
- Date
- Saturday, Nov 14, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 UTC
- Venue
- Arena Națională, Bucharest
- Referee
- Sebastian Gishamer (Austria)
- At stake
- Romania must win to keep third place in reach
- Last meeting
- Poland 6-0 Romania, 2 October 2026
- Suspended
- Răzvan Marin (ROU), Jan Bednarek (POL)
Model verdict for Saturday, Nov 14 2026
Corners carry the clearest model lean, goals come next, and the market backs Poland to win.
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Market view, best prices: Romania 4.00 (25% implied), draw 3.90, Poland 1.87 (53% implied).
Acca bets with Romania vs Poland
TrebleLower risk
78% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.39
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Romania v Poland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 68% -
2
1.18
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 UTC · Scotland Championship
Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's Park
Corners Over 7.5 corners 82% - 3 1.18
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Romania v PolandOver 7.5 corners | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| 2Stenhousemuir FC v Queen's ParkOver 7.5 corners | 1.18 | 1.18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Fleetwood Town v Tranmere RoversOver 7.5 corners | 1.18 | 1.18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Combined odds | 1.94 | 1.94 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 1.94 at 22Bet, with 78% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $19.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
75% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.39
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Romania v Poland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 68% -
2
1.41
Mon 16 Nov, 13:00 UTC · Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualification
Corners Over 7.5 corners 79% - 3 1.34
- 4 1.29
- 5 1.31
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 2 of 5 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Romania v PolandOver 7.5 corners | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| 2Namibia v CameroonOver 7.5 corners | 1.41 | 1.41 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Amarante v Felgueiras 1932Over 7.5 corners | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.31 | — | — | — | — |
| 4Hornchurch v TamworthOver 8.5 corners | 1.29 | 1.29 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5Scunthorpe United v WorthingOver 8.5 corners | 1.31 | 1.31 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Combined odds | 4.44 | 4.44 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 4.44 at 22Bet, with 75% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $44.40. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
70% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.46
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Romania v Poland
Corners Over 7.5 corners 68% - 2 1.43
- 3 1.49
-
4
1.58
Sun 15 Nov, 15:15 UTC · Spain Segunda Division
Corners Over 8.5 corners 72% - 5 1.53
- 6 1.54
- 7 1.51
- 8 1.51
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Romania v PolandOver 7.5 corners | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 2AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| 3Mirassol v Atletico-MGOver 9.5 corners | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| 4Granada CF v UD Las PalmasOver 8.5 corners | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.54 | 1.57 | 1.54 | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| 5Eldense v CE SabadellOver 8.5 corners | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| 6Haiti v USAOver 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.56 | 1.49 |
| 7Queretaro v MonterreyOver 9.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| 8Spain v EnglandOver 8.5 corners | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Combined odds | 26.41 | 26.22 | 24.98 | 24.98 | 24.97 | 24.45 | 23.36 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 26.41 at BetFury, with 70% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $264.10. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call
OpinionFull time call · Sat, Nov 14 · 19:45 UTC · Arena Națională
Why 1-2
Romania have conceded 13 goals in four group games, and only a win keeps third place in reach, so they cannot sit back at home. Poland average 1.5 goals a match in the data and have Robert Lewandowski, with eight goals in the last three official meetings, although six of their seven group goals came in one game. With the model leaning to over 2.5 goals, we expect three goals and a narrow Poland win.
What backs the call
- ModelOver 2.5 goals57%
- MarketPoland win53%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Romania vs Poland prediction: what the model says
The model builds its picks from goals and corners data for each team. It leaves the match result to the betting market, which has Poland as clear favourites at 1.87 and Romania at 4.00.
Goals. Romania score 1.0 goals a match in the data and have conceded 13 in four group games. Poland average 1.5, but six of their seven group goals came in the win over Romania. The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%, best price 1.75 at Mostbet: a lean, not a strong edge.
Corners. Romania take 4.3 corners a match and concede 5.7. Poland take 5.5 and concede 3.0. The model projects 9.8 corners in total, which puts over 7.5 corners at 68% and over 8.5 corners at 62%.
What Romania and Poland need on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026
Romania win
Romania move to 3 points, one behind Poland, and third place is decided on Tuesday 17 November, with Romania in Zenica against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Poland at home to Sweden. If the two finish level on points, the games between them count first, and Poland won the first one 6-0.
A draw
Poland are sure of third place and stay in League B. Romania are sure to finish fourth and go into the League B/C playoffs in March 2027 to keep their place in League B.
Poland win
Romania finish fourth and face the League B/C playoffs in March 2027. Poland move to 7 points, stay in League B and keep a chance of second place, which needs a win against Sweden on Tuesday and help from the other results.
Can Poland still win the group?
No. Poland can reach 10 points at most, and Sweden (10) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (8) play each other on Saturday, so at least one of them finishes above that.
League B rules for 2026/27: the four group winners go up to League A, the runners up play League A teams in promotion playoffs, the third placed teams stay in League B, and the fourth placed teams play the four League C runners up in playoffs to stay in League B. All playoffs are on 25 to 30 March 2027. Teams level on points are split first by the games between them.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7-3 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6-3 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | PolandThis match | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7-4 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | RomaniaThis match | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3-13 | -10 | 0 |
- Winner: up to League A
- Second: playoff for League A
- Third: stays in League B
- Fourth: playoff to stay in League B
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina in Solna kicks off at the same time, 19:45 UTC. On Tuesday 17 November, Bosnia and Herzegovina host Romania in Zenica and Poland host Sweden.
After 6-0 in Warsaw, Romania look for a reply in Bucharest
The first meeting in Group 4 went wrong for Romania early. In Warsaw on 2 October, Radu Drăgușin was sent off in the 22nd minute for a foul on Robert Lewandowski, who scored the penalty. Lewandowski added two more for his seventh hat trick for Poland, Piotr Zieliński and Jan Bednarek scored, and a Virgil Ghiță own goal completed a 6-0 win, the biggest Poland have ever had against Romania.
Gheorghe Hagi has lost all four Nations League games since he returned as Romania coach in April, after the death of Mircea Lucescu. It is his second spell in the job, 25 years after the first in 2001. He is also short of players: Răzvan Marin is suspended, and Nicolae Stanciu, Valentin Mihăilă and goalkeeper Ionuț Radu withdrew injured. More than 40,000 fans are expected at Arena Națională.
Poland are not in great shape either. Jan Urban has one win in four group games, and outside the 6-0 his side scored once in three matches, losing in Solna and Zenica. Bednarek is suspended, and with Marcin Bułka and Kamil Grabara injured, reports differ on who starts in goal. Lewandowski, 38, remains the main threat: he has eight goals in the last three official meetings.
The date gives Romania one small reason for hope. Their last win over Poland came on 14 November 2009, 1-0 in a friendly in Warsaw, 17 years to the day before this game. Poland have won all three official meetings since.
Romania vs Poland team news and predicted lineups
Romania
Head coach Gheorghe Hagi, back for a second spell since April 2026
- Suspended
Răzvan Marin, after two yellow cards in the first four group games
- Out
Nicolae Stanciu, Valentin Mihăilă and goalkeeper Ionuț Radu, who all withdrew injured
- Selection
Previews differ on one place in the attacking three: Alexandru Cicâldău or Ianis Hagi
- Form
Four defeats in four group games, 3 goals scored and 13 conceded
Romania predicted XI: Hindrich; Rațiu, Drăgușin, Coubiș, Bancu; Băluță, Dragomir; Man, Cicâldău, Coman; Bîrligea
Poland
Head coach Jan Urban, under pressure after one win in four group games
- Suspended
Jan Bednarek, after a build up of yellow cards
- Out
Przemysław Frankowski (muscle injury, Arkadiusz Pyrka called up instead), goalkeepers Marcin Bułka and Kamil Grabara (injured)
- Doubts
Piotr Zieliński and Marcel Reguła missed training on Thursday with colds, but reports expect both to play
- In goal
Reports differ between Bartłomiej Drągowski and Sławomir Abramowicz
- Key man
Robert Lewandowski, with eight goals in the last three official meetings, including a hat trick in Warsaw in October
- Likely starters
Most previews include Cash, Kiwior, Potulski, Nowak, Zieliński, Szymański, Zalewski and Lewandowski
Romania vs Poland head to head
Last 5 meetings
- 8corners
Poland6-0Romania
UEFA Nations League - n/a
Poland3-1Romania
World Cup 2018 qualifier, Warsaw - n/a
Romania0-3Poland
World Cup 2018 qualifier, Bucharest - n/a
Poland0-1Romania
Friendly, Warsaw - n/a
Poland1-2Romania
Friendly, Bydgoszcz
Corner counts come from our match data where it exists. Older meetings show n/a.
In official matches, Romania and Poland have met 36 times since 1922: 14 Romania wins, 15 draws and 7 Poland wins, so Romania have won close to two in five. Polish records list 37 games, because they also count a 2013 friendly in Málaga that Poland won 4-1 and FIFA does not treat as official. Poland have won the last three official meetings, and the 6-0 in October was their biggest ever win over Romania.
Romania vs Poland best bets for Saturday, Nov 14, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: Romania have to come out
Romania need a win at home and have conceded 13 goals in four group games, so a closed game suits only Poland. The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%, with 1.75 at Mostbet the best price. The risk is the Poland attack outside the 6-0: one goal in their other three group games.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: the clearest lean on the card
The model projects 9.8 corners, with Romania taking 4.3 a match and conceding 5.7. Poland are the favourites and Romania must chase a win, so both teams have reasons to attack. The October meeting is a poor guide, because Romania played most of it with ten men. Over 8.5 corners pays 1.81 at 62% for a bigger price.
Romania vs Poland odds: best prices right now
What the market says
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
Romania vs Poland corners in one minute
Corner averages per match
Corners for, per match
Corners against, per match lower is better
Total match corners
Better in that row
Every corner line from 7.5 to 11.5, with prices by sportsbook and first half numbers, is on the Romania vs Poland corner prediction page.
Romania vs Poland prediction FAQ
Who will win Romania vs Poland?
The betting market makes Poland favourites at 1.87, a 53% implied chance, for Saturday, Nov 14, 2026, in Bucharest. The model does not price the match result; it backs over 7.5 corners at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The editor score call is Romania 1-2 Poland.
What is the Romania vs Poland score prediction?
Romania 1-2 Poland. It is an editor opinion, not model output, and it fits the model lean to over 2.5 goals.
What happens if Romania lose to Poland?
Romania are then sure to finish fourth in League B Group 4 and go into the League B/C playoffs in March 2027, against a League C runner up, to keep their place in League B. A draw on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026, leads to the same outcome. Only a win keeps third place in reach for Romania.
What was the score the last time Romania played Poland?
Poland won 6-0 in Warsaw on 2 October 2026 in the Nations League. Robert Lewandowski scored a hat trick, and Romania played with ten men from the 22nd minute after Radu Drăgușin was sent off.
Who is missing for Romania and Poland?
Romania are without Răzvan Marin, who is suspended, and Nicolae Stanciu, Valentin Mihăilă and goalkeeper Ionuț Radu, who withdrew injured. Poland are without the suspended Jan Bednarek, the injured Przemysław Frankowski and goalkeepers Marcin Bułka and Kamil Grabara, who are both injured.
When did Romania last beat Poland?
On 14 November 2009, 1-0 in a friendly in Warsaw. Poland have won all three official meetings since, in 2016, 2017 and October 2026.
What time is Romania vs Poland and where is it played?
Kickoff is 19:45 UTC on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026, at Arena Națională in Bucharest. Sebastian Gishamer of Austria is the referee.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026
Prices, chances and slips on this page refresh automatically from our live feeds. Any change since publication is listed here with its time.
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