Serbia vs Germany prediction
Germany should win in Belgrade, but by a goal rather than a rout. The corneredge.bet model rates over 2.5 goals at 78% and over 7.5 corners at 65%, and the betting market makes Germany 78% favourites at 1.28. Germany sit 3 points off the top two, and a defeat would leave them needing Greece to beat the Netherlands to stay in the quarter final race. Serbia are without Dušan Vlahović and two suspended midfielders, and coach Veljko Paunović is banned from the bench. Editor score call: Serbia 1-2 Germany.
Match facts
- Match
- Serbia vs Germany
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League 2026/27
- Group
- League A, Group 2, matchday 5
- Date
- Friday, Nov 13, 2026
- Kickoff
- 19:45 UTC
- Venue
- Rajko Mitić Stadium, Belgrade
- Crowd
- Behind closed doors (UEFA sanction)
- At stake
- Germany are 3 points off the top two
- Last meeting
- Germany 2-0 Serbia, 1 October 2026
- Form
- Serbia have lost 6 games in a row
Model verdict for Friday, Nov 13 2026
Germany are clear favourites, and the model expects goals and corners even in an empty stadium.
Over 2.5 goals
Bet
Over 2.5 goals
Over 7.5 corners
Bet
Over 7.5 corners
Over 8.5 corners
Bet
Over 8.5 corners
Market view, best prices: Serbia 9.90, draw 6.50, Germany 1.28 (78% implied).
Acca bets with Serbia vs Germany
TrebleLower risk
78% avg confidence
View slip
TrebleLower risk
-
1
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Serbia v Germany
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 78% -
2
1.41
Fri 13 Nov, 08:30 UTC · Australia Championship
Preston Lions v Queensland Lions FC
Corners Over 8.5 corners 79% - 3 1.28
Where to bet it
Three bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| 2Preston Lions v Queensland Lions FCOver 8.5 corners | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | — | — |
| 3Fleetwood Town v Tranmere RoversOver 8.5 corners | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | — | — | — | — |
| Combined odds | 2.53 | 2.51 | 2.51 | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 3 legs combine at odds of 2.53 at Mostbet, with 78% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $25.30. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
FivefoldBalanced
75% avg confidence
View slip
FivefoldBalanced
-
1
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Serbia v Germany
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 78% - 2 1.43
- 3 1.38
- 4 1.40
-
5
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 16:00 UTC · Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualification
BTTS Both teams to score: No 71%
Where to bet it
Seven bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.42 |
| 2AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolOver 9.5 corners | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.43 |
| 3CD Leganes v Burgos CFOver 7.5 corners | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| 4Andorra v GibraltarBoth teams to score: No | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.38 |
| 5South Africa v KenyaBoth teams to score: No | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Combined odds | 5.42 | 5.37 | 5.34 | 5.30 | 5.29 | 5.26 | 5.18 |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 5 legs combine at odds of 5.42 at Mostbet, with 75% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $54.20. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
EightfoldLong shot
73% avg confidence
View slip
EightfoldLong shot
-
1
1.40
Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League · this match
Serbia v Germany
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 78% - 2 1.44
-
3
1.60
Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 75% -
4
1.58
Sun 15 Nov, 15:15 UTC · Spain Segunda Division
Corners Over 8.5 corners 72% - 5 1.55
- 6 1.55
- 7 1.49
-
8
1.36
Fri 13 Nov, 20:00 UTC · CONCACAF Nations League
Grenada v Saint Kitts and Nevis
Goals O2.5 Over 2.5 goals 66%
Where to bet it
Two bookmakers offer every leg. Same bet, different odds.
| Leg | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Serbia v GermanyOver 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| 2Germany v NetherlandsOver 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.52 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3Sweden v Bosnia & HerzegovinaOver 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.56 |
| 4Granada CF v UD Las PalmasOver 8.5 corners | 1.58 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.54 | — | — |
| 5Northern Ireland v UkraineOver 7.5 corners | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| 6Queretaro v MonterreyOver 9.5 corners | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.55 | — | — | — |
| 7Eldense v CE SabadellOver 8.5 corners | 1.49 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.47 | — | — |
| 8Grenada v Saint Kitts and NevisOver 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| Combined odds | 24.81 | 23.33 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lime marks the best price on each leg. A bookmaker needs a price on every leg to take the slip.
All 8 legs combine at odds of 24.81 at 22Bet, with 73% average confidence and a $10 stake returning $248.10. One selection per match, prices move so check the slip before you bet.
Editor score call
OpinionFull time call · Fri, Nov 13 · 19:45 UTC · Rajko Mitić Stadium
Why 1-2
Serbia conceded exactly two goals in each of their four group games and lost three of them 2-1. Germany average 2.8 goals a match in our data but scored only 3 in the group, so a rout is not the base case even against a weakened Serbia. We expect Germany to win by one goal, with three goals in the game.
What backs the call
- ModelOver 2.5 goals78%
- MarketGermany win78%
Our model does not predict exact scores. This call is the opinion of the corneredge.bet editorial team.
Serbia vs Germany prediction: what the model says
The model reads goals and corners from team data. It does not price the match result, so the favourite view above comes from the betting market, where Germany are 1.28 and Serbia 9.90.
Goals. Germany average 2.8 goals per match and Serbia 0.8. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 78%, best price 1.42 at Roobet. The warning sign is this Nations League campaign: Germany scored only 3 goals in four group games.
Corners. Germany take 7.0 corners a match and concede 4.3. Serbia take 4.8 and concede 5.0. The model projects 9.4 corners in total, which puts over 7.5 at 65%, over 8.5 at 59% and over 9.5 close to a coin flip at 53%.
What Serbia and Germany need on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Germany win
Germany move to 8 points. Beat the Netherlands in Berlin on Monday 16 November too and they reach the quarter finals, unless the Netherlands beat Greece on Friday and Greece then beat Serbia, which would leave three teams level on 11 points.
A draw
Germany move to 6 points and are safe from direct relegation. To reach the quarter finals they would then have to beat the Netherlands on Monday, and they may also need help from other results.
Serbia win
Germany stay on 5 points. They could then reach the top two only if Greece beat the Netherlands on Friday and Germany beat the Netherlands on Monday. A defeat also puts fourth place, and the risk of relegation, in play for Germany.
What Serbia are playing for
Serbia cannot reach the quarter finals, and they finish fourth unless they beat Germany. Fourth does not always mean relegation: the two best fourth placed teams across League A go to playoffs, so points and goal difference still count.
League A rules for 2026/27: the top two in each group reach the quarter finals, the two best third placed teams stay up, the two worst third placed and the two best fourth placed teams play League B runners up in playoffs in March 2027, and the two worst fourth placed teams are relegated.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7-5 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5-3 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | GermanyThis match | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3-2 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | SerbiaThis match | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3-8 | -5 | 0 |
- Top two: quarter finals
- Third: stay up or playoff
- Fourth: playoff or relegation
Netherlands vs Greece is also played on Friday at 19:45 UTC. Germany vs Netherlands in Berlin and Greece vs Serbia in Volos follow on Monday 16 November, both at 19:45 UTC.
An empty stadium and the first Germany game in Belgrade since 1977
Friday is played behind closed doors. UEFA closed the Rajko Mitić Stadium to the public after racist and discriminatory behaviour by home fans at the September games against Greece and the Netherlands. Reports say only children with their teachers or youth coaches, plus a small group of guests, may attend.
It is also the first Germany game in Belgrade for almost 50 years. The last one was on 30 April 1977, when West Germany beat Yugoslavia 2-1 at this stadium. All four meetings with Serbia since 2006 were played in Germany or at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, so this is the first time Serbia host Germany.
Jürgen Klopp took over Germany in August, after Paraguay knocked them out of the World Cup in the round of 32. His first win came against Serbia: 2-0 in Munich on 1 October, with goals from Tom Bischof and Florian Wirtz. Germany kept two clean sheets in the group but scored only 3 goals in four games, and Niclas Füllkrug is back in the squad.
Serbia have lost six games in a row, the last four in this group. Coach Veljko Paunović cannot sit on the bench after two bookings, and he is without Dušan Vlahović for private reasons, Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović through suspension and Strahinja Pavlović after a blow to the kidney area. Aleksandar Mitrović is back to lead the attack.
Serbia vs Germany team news and predicted lineups
Serbia
Head coach Veljko Paunović, banned from the bench for this game after two bookings
- Suspended
Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović (yellow cards)
- Out
Dušan Vlahović (private reasons), Strahinja Pavlović (blow to the kidney area), Aleksa Terzić (infection), Filip Kostić (injury), Aleksandar Stanković (adductor injury)
- Back
Aleksandar Mitrović returns to lead the attack
- Form
Six defeats in a row, the last four in this group
Germany
Head coach Jürgen Klopp, in charge since August 2026
- Out
Waldemar Anton (muscle problem, replaced in the squad by Ridle Baku), Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry (both injured)
- Not in squad
Nick Woltemade and David Raum
- Back
Niclas Füllkrug returns to the squad
- Uncapped
Wael Mohya (17), Finn Jeltsch and Brajan Gruda
- Goalkeeper
Marc-André ter Stegen is confirmed as number one
Germany predicted XI: Ter Stegen; Treu, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown; Kimmich, Nmecha; Karl, Wirtz, El Mala; Havertz
Serbia vs Germany head to head
Last 4 meetings
- 13corners
Germany2-0Serbia
UEFA Nations League - n/a
Germany1-1Serbia
Friendly, Wolfsburg - n/a
Germany0-1Serbia
World Cup 2010, Port Elizabeth - n/a
Germany2-1Serbia
Friendly, Gelsenkirchen
Corner counts come from our match data where it exists. Older meetings show n/a.
As Serbia, the team has met Germany four times since 2006: 2 Germany wins, 1 draw and 1 Serbia win, so Germany have won half of the meetings. Serbia won the only competitive meeting before this season, 1-0 at the 2010 World Cup in Port Elizabeth, where Milan Jovanović scored a minute after Miroslav Klose was sent off. Records that add the old Yugoslavia team differ by source, so they are not counted here.
Serbia vs Germany best bets for Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Best bet for goals
Over 2.5 goals: Serbia conceded two in every group game
Serbia conceded exactly two goals in each of their four group games, and Germany average 2.8 goals a match in our data. The model rates the over at 78%. The risk is the Germany attack, which scored only 3 goals in the group and drew 0-0 in Greece last time out.
Best bet for corners
Over 7.5 corners: Germany take most of them
Germany take 7.0 corners a match and Serbia concede 5.0. Serbia add 4.8 of their own, and the model projects 9.4 in total, which puts over 7.5 at 65%. For a bigger price, over 8.5 is 1.59 at a 59% model chance.
Serbia vs Germany odds: best prices right now
What the market says
Best price per outcome across the sportsbooks we track. Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds, before the sportsbook margin.
Serbia vs Germany corners in one minute
Corner averages per match
Corners for, per match
Corners against, per match lower is better
Total match corners
First half corners
Better in that row
The full corner market, from over 7.5 to over 11.5 with the price at each sportsbook and first half averages, is on the Serbia vs Germany corner prediction page.
Serbia vs Germany prediction FAQ
Who will win Serbia vs Germany?
The betting market makes Germany clear favourites at 1.28, a 78% implied chance, for Friday, Nov 13, 2026, in Belgrade. Serbia are 9.90. The model does not price the result; it backs over 2.5 goals at 78% and over 7.5 corners at 65%. The editor score call is Serbia 1-2 Germany.
What is the Serbia vs Germany score prediction?
Serbia 1-2 Germany. This is an editor score call, an opinion rather than model output, and three goals fits the model lean towards over 2.5 goals.
Do Germany need to beat Serbia?
A win is the clean route to the quarter finals. A draw on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, keeps Germany safe from direct relegation but leaves them needing to beat the Netherlands on Monday, and possibly help from other results. A defeat ends their top two hopes unless Greece beat the Netherlands on Friday and Germany then beat the Netherlands in Berlin.
What was the score the last time Serbia played Germany?
Germany won 2-0 in Munich on 1 October 2026 in the Nations League, with goals from Tom Bischof and Florian Wirtz. It was the first win for Jürgen Klopp as Germany head coach.
Why is Serbia vs Germany played without fans?
UEFA punished the Football Association of Serbia for racist and discriminatory behaviour by fans at the home games against Greece and the Netherlands in September. The sanction includes one home game without spectators, and it falls on the Germany game.
Who is missing for Serbia against Germany?
Dušan Vlahović left the squad for private reasons, Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović are suspended, and Strahinja Pavlović, Aleksa Terzić, Filip Kostić and Aleksandar Stanković are out. Coach Veljko Paunović is banned from the bench after two bookings.
What time is Serbia vs Germany and where is it played?
Kickoff is 19:45 UTC on Friday, Nov 13, 2026, at the Rajko Mitić Stadium in Belgrade. The game is played behind closed doors.
Live tracker: what changed before kickoff on Friday, Nov 13, 2026
- Serbia to win: best price 9.60 to 9.90 (now Thunderpick); Draw: best price 6.40 to 6.50.
- Germany to win: best price 1.29 to 1.28 (now Thunderpick).
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